junho 06, 2004

Bolha a Vazar?

No Ludwig von Mises Institute (meus destaques):
"Housing prices never, or rarely, go down. That is the conventional wisdom and the conventional wisdom is correct. Housing is always a good investment, isn't it?

Housing bubbles typically do not pop like a balloon; they don't even crash like stock markets. Rather, the air in housing bubbles tends to leak out slowly-painfully slowly-while in commercial real estate markets there is a more noticeable hiss. We really don't know the current value of our homes until we sell them. They are not traded on a daily basis, like shares of stock in Wal-Mart. Some never get exchanged in the market, but are passed on within a family from generation to generation. The market value of a home may drop 20% and the owner might never realize it.

Worse yet, when the market for real estate collapses, prices are less likely to collapse because when buyers fail to make offers houses simply don't sell. Sellers often resist cutting their prices in favor of just leaving the house on the market or taking it off the market. Traditionally the market adjustment to a collapse in real estate markets has come from the quantity side, not the price side-fewer houses are sold-while price reductions tend to come gradually. This doesn't mean that housing bubbles can't exist or that the bust is any less painful, only that it doesn't make as much noise.

Ultimamente, observo que muitas placas "Vende-se" têm permanecido penduradas nas varandas das casas! E, as taxas de juro ainda não subiram...